Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Tampa Bay Rays ML (-130, BetOnline.ag) · confidence 51.9% of 10,000 sims · edge -4.6 pts · 0u
Hayden Wesneski (3.35 ERA, 1.03 WHIP) vs Freddy Peralta (4.82 ERA, 1.36 WHIP).
Projected 4.6–4.4; sim total 9 against a 7.5 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline +115 / -134 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (6 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -130 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 48.6% vs de-vigged market 55.2%: 6.5-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 51.9% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -4.6 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Hayden Wesneski under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.304 vs league 0.324 (gap +0.019, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +115 / -134 | +110 / -130 |
| Total | 7.5 | 7.5 (o-117 / u-105) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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