Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Chicago Cubs ML (-148, BetRivers) · confidence 56.1% of 10,000 sims · edge -3.5 pts · 0u
Bubba Chandler (4.25 ERA, 1.34 WHIP) vs Matthew Boyd (4.03 ERA, 1.22 WHIP).
Projected 4.7–5.1; sim total 9.8 against a 7 line; park factor 1.02.
Market at board time: moneyline +133 / -155 (consensus at board time) · total 7.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -148 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 53.7% vs de-vigged market 58.6%: 4.9-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 56.1% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -3.5 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.320 vs league 0.324 (gap +0.004, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 71°F at first pitch: run environment x1.006. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +133 / -155 | +140 / -163 |
| Total | 7 | 7 (o-110 / u-110) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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