Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Atlanta Braves ML (-125, Fanatics) · confidence 54.9% of 10,000 sims · edge -0.6 pts · 0u
Andrew Painter (5.71 ERA, 1.41 WHIP) vs Grant Holmes (3.46 ERA, 1.29 WHIP).
Projected 4.2–5; sim total 9.1 against a 9 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline +110 / -128 (consensus at board time) · total 9.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -125 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 55.8% vs de-vigged market 54.1%: 1.7-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 54.9% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -0.6 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.289 vs league 0.324 (gap +0.035, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 81°F at first pitch: run environment x1.046. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 9 (+105, Caesars) · model 56.4% · edge +7.6 pts · divergence +7.7 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +110 / -128 | +110 / -128 |
| Total | 9 | 9.5 (o-104 / u-117) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 9 (+105, Caesars) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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