Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Boston Red Sox -1.5 run line · confidence 43.2% of 10,000 sims · edge -4.8 pts · 0u
Noah Cameron (3.93 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) vs Payton Tolle (3.15 ERA, 1.08 WHIP).
Projected 4.1–4.9; sim total 8.9 against a 7.5 line; park factor 1.06.
Market at board time: moneyline +155 / -183 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -180 exceeds the day-game juice cap (-170): pivoted off the moneyline to BOS -1.5 (covers 43.2% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 56.7% vs de-vigged market 62.2%: 5.5-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 43.2% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -4.8 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.308 vs league 0.324 (gap +0.016, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 66°F at first pitch: run environment x0.986. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 7.5 (+103, LowVig.ag) · model 53.5% · edge +4.2 pts · divergence +5.7 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +155 / -183 | +158 / -186 |
| Total | 7.5 | 7.5 (o+100 / u-120) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 7.5 (+103, LowVig.ag) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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