Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Washington Nationals ML (-121, BetRivers) · confidence 55.0% of 10,000 sims · edge +0.2 pts · 0u
Grayson Rodriguez (6.28 ERA, 1.57 WHIP) vs Jake Irvin (5.52 ERA, 1.42 WHIP).
Projected 4.6–5.3; sim total 9.8 against a 9 line; park factor 0.99.
Market at board time: moneyline +111 / -130 (consensus at board time) · total 9.
Circuit-breaker log (9 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -121 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 55.5% vs de-vigged market 54.4%: 1.1-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 55.0% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is +0.2 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.303 vs league 0.324 (gap +0.021, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 82°F at first pitch: run environment x1.047. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
- ✳ Best of Board: the gates left no held plays today, so this is the model's top remaining lean — 0 units, NOT staked, published for transparency. The checks above show exactly which gate it failed.
- 🎯 Daily Pick (v0.15): the slate's top-ranked eligible candidate (score 0.576) under the always-on strategy's lower, precommitted bar. 0u through the proving window (ends 2026-09-08); separate public ledger, never mixed with the Qualified record.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +111 / -130 | +116 / -135 |
| Total | 9 | 9.5 (o-105 / u-115) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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