Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Detroit Tigers -1.5 run line · confidence 39.9% of 10,000 sims · edge -6.6 pts · 0u
Gabriel Hughes (5.81 ERA, 1.38 WHIP) vs Jackson Jobe (4.45 ERA, 1.41 WHIP).
Projected 4.5–4.7; sim total 9.2 against a 9 line; park factor 0.97.
Market at board time: moneyline +154 / -184 (consensus at board time) · total 9.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -175 exceeds the day-game juice cap (-170): pivoted off the moneyline to DET -1.5 (covers 39.9% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 51.9% vs de-vigged market 62.2%: 10.3-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 39.9% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -6.6 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Gabriel Hughes, Jackson Jobe under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.320 vs league 0.324 (gap +0.004, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 76°F at first pitch: run environment x1.024. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 9 (-109, LowVig.ag) · model 57.4% · edge +5.3 pts · divergence +6.3 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +154 / -184 | +224 / -300 |
| Total | 9 | 10.5 (o-124 / u-109) |
Capture caveat, verbatim: first capture was after first pitch — weak close.
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
➖ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 9 (-109, LowVig.ag) — PUSH (+0.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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