Seattle Mariners @ Athletics
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Seattle Mariners ML (-126, LowVig.ag) · confidence 52.3% of 10,000 sims · edge -3.5 pts · 0u
Bryce Miller (4.22 ERA, 1.14 WHIP) vs Jacob Lopez (4.78 ERA, 1.45 WHIP).
Projected 4.7–4.7; sim total 9.4 against a 9 line; park factor 1.02.
Market at board time: moneyline -133 / +114 (consensus at board time) · total 9.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -126 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 49.6% vs de-vigged market 55.0%: 5.4-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 52.3% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -3.5 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.339 vs league 0.324 (gap -0.015, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 76°F at first pitch: run environment x1.024. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 9 (+100, BetMGM) · model 56.5% · edge +6.5 pts · divergence +7.4 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -133 / +114 | -133 / +113 |
| Total | 9 | 9 (o-115 / u-105) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 9 (+100, BetMGM) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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