San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
San Diego Padres ML (-125, BetUS) · confidence 52.6% of 10,000 sims · edge -3.0 pts · 0u
Nick Pivetta (3.43 ERA, 0.95 WHIP) vs Logan Webb (4.10 ERA, 1.15 WHIP).
Projected 4–3.9; sim total 7.8 against a 7.5 line; park factor 0.94.
Market at board time: moneyline -128 / +110 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -125 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 51.0% vs de-vigged market 54.1%: 3.1-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 52.6% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -3.0 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Nick Pivetta under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.330 vs league 0.324 (gap -0.006, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 69°F at first pitch: run environment x0.996. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -128 / +110 | -142 / +120 |
| Total | 7.5 | 7.5 (o-105 / u-115) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
All games this day · Pick archive · The Morning Line for this date