New York Mets @ New York Yankees
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
New York Yankees ML (-168, LowVig.ag) · confidence 59.5% of 10,000 sims · edge -3.2 pts · 0u
Christian Scott (3.81 ERA, 1.29 WHIP) vs Cam Schlittler (2.01 ERA, 0.92 WHIP).
Projected 3.7–4.5; sim total 8.2 against a 7.5 line; park factor 1.03.
Market at board time: moneyline +150 / -179 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -168 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 57.3% vs de-vigged market 61.6%: 4.3-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 59.5% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -3.2 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.364 vs league 0.324 (gap -0.040, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 71°F at first pitch: run environment x1.005. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +150 / -179 | +152 / -181 |
| Total | 7.5 | 7.5 (o-120 / u-101) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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