Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Cleveland Guardians ML (-145, BetOnline.ag) · confidence 52.4% of 10,000 sims · edge -6.8 pts · 0u
Sean Newcomb (2.77 ERA, 1.14 WHIP) vs Gavin Williams (3.78 ERA, 1.09 WHIP).
Projected 4.2–3.8; sim total 8 against a 7 line; park factor 0.97.
Market at board time: moneyline +130 / -151 (consensus at board time) · total 7.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -145 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 46.7% vs de-vigged market 58.0%: 11.3-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 52.4% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -6.8 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.297 vs league 0.326 (gap +0.029, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 67°F at first pitch: run environment x0.987. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +130 / -151 | +130 / -155 |
| Total | 7 | 7 (o-101 / u-119) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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