The slate for Monday, September 14, 2026: 10 games, no qualifying plays, 6 on watch
10 games on the slate, 10 simulated 10,000 times each, and nothing cleared the gates — no manufactured pick, no exceptions. 6 on the watch list at 0 units. The full board, with every circuit-breaker check printed, is on the site.
What we learned: Monday, September 7, 2026 – Sunday, September 13, 2026
The engine ran 7 slates: 82 games simulated, 0 plays published (0u risked), 40 tracked on the watch list at 0 units, 9 scratched by rule. Every no-play day was a decision, not an outage: nothing cleared the gates at an allocatable price, and the leans that failed are on each day's board with reasons.
No staked picks were graded this week — the gates held everything back. The paper records below are where a quiet week still teaches.
The watch list on paper this week (flat 1u, 0 staked, never mixed into the ledger):
R8-hold6-0 · +2.54u paperedge-band1-0 · +1.04u papermarket-proving9-22-2p · -13.18u paper
These records accumulate toward the public promotion criteria — 100 graded picks, non-negative units, calibration inside 4 points — and nothing gets staked before then.
Yesterday on the ledger
No staked plays were graded for Sunday, September 13, 2026 — the gates published nothing, so nothing rode. Passing is a position too, and it grades itself.
The watch list — tracked, not staked — went 0-4-1 on paper. That record accumulates toward the promotion criteria; it never touches the staked ledger.
Running ledger: 4-6 · -2.25u · ROI -34.7%, every entry public and append-only.
Today's slate, game by game
| First pitch | Game | Starters (ERA) | Projected score | Sim total / line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6:40 PM ET | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds | Tarik Skubal (2.84) vs Nick Lodolo (5.12) | 5.3–4.1 | 9.5 / 7.5 |
| 6:40 PM ET | Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians | Sean Newcomb (2.77) vs Gavin Williams (3.78) | 4.2–3.8 | 8 / 7 |
| 7:07 PM ET | Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays | Troy Melton (2.42) vs José Soriano (3.48) | 4.2–4.1 | 8.3 / 7.5 |
| 7:10 PM ET | Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets | Brandon Young (3.71) vs Jonah Tong (4.80) | 3.9–4.3 | 8.2 / 8 |
| 7:40 PM ET | Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs | Reynaldo López (4.13) vs David Peterson (5.28) | 4.7–5 | 9.6 / 9.5 |
| 7:40 PM ET | New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins | Will Warren (4.05) vs Dean Kremer (5.65) | 4.8–4.3 | 9.1 / 8 |
| 7:45 PM ET | San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals | Landen Roupp (4.00) vs Quinn Mathews (4.11) | 4.3–4.4 | 8.6 / 7.5 |
| 8:40 PM ET | San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies | Casey Mize (3.70) vs Tomoyuki Sugano (5.30) | 5.9–5.4 | 11.2 / 11 |
| 9:38 PM ET | Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels | Kade Anderson (4.29) vs Reid Detmers (3.32) | 4–4.4 | 8.4 / 7.5 |
| 9:40 PM ET | Miami Marlins @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Sandy Alcantara (3.78) vs Corbin Burnes (0.00) | 4.6–4.6 | 9.2 / 8 |
Projections are the engine's 10,000-simulation averages, already blended toward the de-vigged market. ★ marks the free pick. Held plays show no numbers on purpose: a projection plus a total is most of a pick. Every matchup links to its permanent pick page, which completes once the game grades.
🎯 The Daily Pick
No play cleared the strict Qualified gates today, so the always-on strategy carries the slate: Los Angeles Angels ML (-102, BetMGM) — Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels, 9:38 PM ET. Edge +0.6 pts at the best price, ranking score 0.381. 0 units through the proving window (ends September 8) — it grades onto its own public record, never the Qualified ledger. Full card and analysis on the site.
Three angles a bettor would actually check
- The mound mismatch: Miami Marlins @ Arizona Diamondbacks. Corbin Burnes (0.00 ERA) against Sandy Alcantara (3.78) is a 3.8-run ERA gap. The engine stabilizes both with FIP and innings before believing it — a raw ERA gap this wide usually shrinks under the hood, and the market has already priced most of what survives.
- The total: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds. The sim lands on 9.5 runs against a 7.5 line — 2.0 toward the over. Totals remain in their paper proving period on the watch list: computed, published, graded at 0 units until the record earns promotion.
- The park: San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies. Coors Field carries a 1.24 park factor — solidly hitter-friendly. Known information, so it's in the posted total already; the question is whether this matchup's pitchers move the number off it. Our sim says 11.2 runs.
The watch list: tracked, not staked
market-provingBaltimore Orioles @ New York Mets — Under 8 (-110, Fanatics) · model 60.5% · edge +8.2 ptsmarket-provingAtlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs — Under 9.5 (-104, BetRivers) · model 56.2% · edge +5.2 ptsmarket-provingNew York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins — Under 8 (-102, BetMGM) · model 53.1% · edge +2.6 ptsmarket-provingSan Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals — Over 7.5 (-115, LowVig.ag) · model 59.0% · edge +5.5 ptsmarket-provingSan Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies — Under 11 (-105, Bovada) · model 53.8% · edge +2.6 ptsmarket-provingSeattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels — Over 7.5 (-102, LowVig.ag) · model 52.5% · edge +2.1 pts
Watch picks clear some but not all gates, or belong to a market still proving itself on paper. Each is graded like a real pick at 0 units, on a record that never mixes with the staked ledger. When a segment reaches 100 graded picks with non-negative units and calibration inside 4 points, it gets promoted — publicly, as a version bump. Until then it is exactly this: watched.