San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
St. Louis Cardinals ML (-136, LowVig.ag) · confidence 53.8% of 10,000 sims · edge -3.8 pts · 0u
Landen Roupp (4.00 ERA, 1.28 WHIP) vs Quinn Mathews (4.11 ERA, 1.50 WHIP).
Projected 4.3–4.4; sim total 8.6 against a 7.5 line; park factor 0.97.
Market at board time: moneyline +122 / -143 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -136 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 51.0% vs de-vigged market 56.6%: 5.6-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 53.8% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -3.8 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Quinn Mathews under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.333 vs league 0.326 (gap -0.007, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 85°F at first pitch: run environment x1.061 + 5% hot-day kicker vs home SP fly-ball (58% air outs). Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 7.5 (-115, LowVig.ag) · model 59.0% · edge +5.5 pts · divergence +7.0 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +122 / -143 | +139 / -163 |
| Total | 7.5 | 8.5 (o-105 / u-115) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 7.5 (-115, LowVig.ag) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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