New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
New York Yankees ML (-119, BetOnline.ag) · confidence 53.5% of 10,000 sims · edge -0.9 pts · 0u
Will Warren (4.05 ERA, 1.36 WHIP) vs Dean Kremer (5.65 ERA, 1.30 WHIP).
Projected 4.8–4.3; sim total 9.1 against a 8 line; park factor 0.99.
Market at board time: moneyline -125 / +106 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -119 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 53.6% vs de-vigged market 53.4%: 0.2-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 53.5% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -0.9 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.321 vs league 0.326 (gap +0.004, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 60°F at first pitch: run environment x0.961. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 8 (-102, BetMGM) · model 53.1% · edge +2.6 pts · divergence +3.2 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -125 / +106 | -172 / +149 |
| Total | 8 | 7.5 (o-118 / u-2) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 8 (-102, BetMGM) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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