Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
New York Mets ML (-128, BetUS) · confidence 51.5% of 10,000 sims · edge -4.7 pts · 0u
Shane Baz (4.05 ERA, 1.33 WHIP) vs Sean Manaea (4.79 ERA, 1.34 WHIP).
Projected 4.3–4.1; sim total 8.5 against a 8 line; park factor 0.96.
Market at board time: moneyline +114 / -130 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -128 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 48.2% vs de-vigged market 54.7%: 6.5-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 51.5% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -4.7 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.292 vs league 0.325 (gap +0.033, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 67°F at first pitch: run environment x0.988. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 8 (-107, LowVig.ag) · model 56.2% · edge +4.6 pts · divergence +6.2 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +114 / -130 | +121 / -142 |
| Total | 8 | 8.5 (o-110 / u-110) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 8 (-107, LowVig.ag) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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