The slate for Tuesday, September 15, 2026: 15 games, no qualifying plays, 11 on watch
15 games on the slate, 14 simulated 10,000 times each, and nothing cleared the gates — no manufactured pick, no exceptions. 1 scratched by rule. 11 on the watch list at 0 units. The full board, with every circuit-breaker check printed, is on the site.
Yesterday on the ledger
No staked plays were graded for Monday, September 14, 2026 — the gates published nothing, so nothing rode. Passing is a position too, and it grades itself.
The watch list — tracked, not staked — went 2-4 on paper. That record accumulates toward the promotion criteria; it never touches the staked ledger.
Running ledger: 4-6 · -2.25u · ROI -34.7%, every entry public and append-only.
Today's slate, game by game
| First pitch | Game | Starters (ERA) | Projected score | Sim total / line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6:40 PM ET | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds | Yoshinobu Yamamoto (2.62) vs Rhett Lowder (5.81) | 5.5–4.1 | 9.5 / 8.5 |
| 6:40 PM ET | Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays | Jack Perkins (6.53) vs Griffin Jax (3.99) | 4.3–5.2 | 9.5 / 8 |
| 6:40 PM ET | Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians | Davis Martin (4.05) vs Foster Griffin (3.65) | 4.2–4 | 8.2 / 8.5 |
| 6:40 PM ET | Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Jacob Misiorowski (1.95) vs Lake Bachar (3.52) | 4.7–3.9 | 8.6 / 7.5 |
| 6:45 PM ET | Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals | Cristopher Sánchez (2.79) vs Jackson Kent (6.59) | 4.8–4.5 | 9.3 / 8 |
| 7:07 PM ET | Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays | Drew Anderson (3.80) vs Braydon Fisher (3.22) | 4.2–4.2 | 8.4 / 8.5 |
| 7:10 PM ET | Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets | Shane Baz (4.05) vs Sean Manaea (4.79) | 4.3–4.1 | 8.5 / 8 |
| 7:40 PM ET | Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs | Martín Pérez (3.08) vs Kevin Gausman (4.60) | 4.5–4.8 | 9.3 / 8.5 |
| 7:40 PM ET | New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins | Max Fried (2.73) vs Bailey Ober (4.28) | 4.7–3.9 | 8.6 / 8 |
| 7:45 PM ET | San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals | Blade Tidwell (4.82) vs Andre Pallante (3.45) | 4.1–4.6 | 8.6 / 8.5 |
| 8:10 PM ET | Kansas City Royals @ Houston Astros | Michael Wacha (3.25) vs Hunter Brown (3.52) | 4–4.4 | 8.5 / 8 |
| 8:40 PM ET | San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies | Walker Buehler (4.61) vs Kyle Freeland (6.37) | 6–5.7 | 11.7 / 11.5 |
| 9:38 PM ET | Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels | Logan Gilbert (3.72) vs Ryan Johnson (5.12) | 4.5–4.3 | 8.8 / 8 |
| 9:40 PM ET | Miami Marlins @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Janson Junk (4.54) vs Michael Soroka (3.53) | 4.4–4.8 | 9.2 / 8.5 |
| 8:05 PM ET | Boston Red Sox @ Texas Rangers | Scratched — Rule 7: Late-Line Circuit Breaker: Starter TBD for TEX inside the pre-game window. Automatic scratch, no position. | ||
Projections are the engine's 10,000-simulation averages, already blended toward the de-vigged market. ★ marks the free pick. Held plays show no numbers on purpose: a projection plus a total is most of a pick. Every matchup links to its permanent pick page, which completes once the game grades.
No qualifying plays — and the best of what remained
Today's ✳ Best of Board is Chicago Cubs ML (-135, BetUS) (Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs) at 0 units: the model's top remaining choice, published with every gate it failed. We show it so you can see the reasoning; we don't stake it, and it never enters the ledger.
Three angles a bettor would actually check
- The mound mismatch: Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals. Cristopher Sánchez (2.79 ERA) against Jackson Kent (6.59) is a 3.8-run ERA gap. The engine stabilizes both with FIP and innings before believing it — a raw ERA gap this wide usually shrinks under the hood, and the market has already priced most of what survives.
- The park: San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies. Coors Field carries a 1.24 park factor — solidly hitter-friendly. Known information, so it's in the posted total already; the question is whether this matchup's pitchers move the number off it. Our sim says 11.7 runs.
- The total: Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays. The sim lands on 9.5 runs against a 8 line — 1.5 toward the over. Totals remain in their paper proving period on the watch list: computed, published, graded at 0 units until the record earns promotion.
The watch list: tracked, not staked
market-provingLos Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds — Over 8.5 (-105, BetRivers) · model 57.7% · edge +6.5 ptsmarket-provingChicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians — Under 8.5 (-107, LowVig.ag) · model 54.2% · edge +2.5 ptsmarket-provingMilwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates — Over 7.5 (-102, LowVig.ag) · model 54.2% · edge +3.8 ptsR8-holdPhiladelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals — Philadelphia Phillies ML (-210, BetUS) · model 39.8% · edge -8.5 ptsmarket-provingDetroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays — Under 8.5 (-113, LowVig.ag) · model 56.0% · edge +2.9 ptsmarket-provingBaltimore Orioles @ New York Mets — Under 8 (-107, LowVig.ag) · model 56.2% · edge +4.6 ptsmarket-provingNew York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins — Under 8 (-113, LowVig.ag) · model 55.5% · edge +2.5 ptsmarket-provingSan Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals — Over 8.5 (+105, LowVig.ag) · model 52.1% · edge +3.4 ptsmarket-provingKansas City Royals @ Houston Astros — Under 8 (-113, LowVig.ag) · model 56.3% · edge +3.2 ptsmarket-provingSan Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies — Under 11.5 (-109, LowVig.ag) · model 54.4% · edge +2.2 ptsmarket-provingSeattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels — Under 8 (-102, LowVig.ag) · model 52.9% · edge +2.4 pts
Watch picks clear some but not all gates, or belong to a market still proving itself on paper. Each is graded like a real pick at 0 units, on a record that never mixes with the staked ledger. When a segment reaches 100 graded picks with non-negative units and calibration inside 4 points, it gets promoted — publicly, as a version bump. Until then it is exactly this: watched.