New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
New York Yankees ML (-172, BetOnline.ag) · confidence 58.7% of 10,000 sims · edge -4.5 pts · 0u
Max Fried (2.73 ERA, 0.99 WHIP) vs Bailey Ober (4.28 ERA, 1.25 WHIP).
Projected 4.7–3.9; sim total 8.6 against a 8 line; park factor 0.99.
Market at board time: moneyline -178 / +150 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -172 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 55.9% vs de-vigged market 61.5%: 5.6-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 58.7% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -4.5 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.332 vs league 0.325 (gap -0.008, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 70°F at first pitch: run environment x0.998. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 8 (-113, LowVig.ag) · model 55.5% · edge +2.5 pts · divergence +4.4 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -178 / +150 | -146 / +125 |
| Total | 8 | 8 (o-110 / u-110) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 8 (-113, LowVig.ag) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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