Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Cleveland Guardians ML (-144, FanDuel) · confidence 52.7% of 10,000 sims · edge -6.3 pts · 0u
Davis Martin (4.05 ERA, 1.31 WHIP) vs Foster Griffin (3.65 ERA, 1.18 WHIP).
Projected 4.2–4; sim total 8.2 against a 8.5 line; park factor 0.97.
Market at board time: moneyline +126 / -148 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -144 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 48.0% vs de-vigged market 57.4%: 9.4-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 52.7% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -6.3 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.301 vs league 0.325 (gap +0.024, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 83°F at first pitch: run environment x1.052. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 8.5 (-107, LowVig.ag) · model 54.2% · edge +2.5 pts · divergence +4.2 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +126 / -148 | +128 / -150 |
| Total | 8.5 | 9 (o-110 / u-115) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 8.5 (-107, LowVig.ag) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
All games this day · Pick archive · The Morning Line for this date