Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 run line · confidence 48.5% of 10,000 sims · edge -5.7 pts · 0u
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (2.62 ERA, 0.88 WHIP) vs Rhett Lowder (5.81 ERA, 1.53 WHIP).
Projected 5.5–4.1; sim total 9.5 against a 8.5 line; park factor 1.04.
Market at board time: moneyline -236 / +196 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -230 exceeds the night-game juice cap (-180): pivoted off the moneyline to LAD -1.5 (covers 48.5% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 60.5% vs de-vigged market 67.5%: 7.0-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 48.5% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -5.7 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.339 vs league 0.325 (gap -0.014, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 94°F at first pitch: run environment x1.097. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 8.5 (-105, BetRivers) · model 57.7% · edge +6.5 pts · divergence +6.6 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -236 / +196 | -238 / +198 |
| Total | 8.5 | 8.5 (o-115 / u-105) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 8.5 (-105, BetRivers) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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