San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
San Diego Padres -1.5 run line · confidence 41.7% of 10,000 sims · edge -7.5 pts · 0u
Walker Buehler (4.61 ERA, 1.36 WHIP) vs Kyle Freeland (6.37 ERA, 1.46 WHIP).
Projected 6–5.7; sim total 11.7 against a 11.5 line; park factor 1.24.
Market at board time: moneyline -190 / +160 (consensus at board time) · total 11.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -186 exceeds the night-game juice cap (-180): pivoted off the moneyline to SD -1.5 (covers 41.7% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 52.0% vs de-vigged market 63.0%: 11.1-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 41.7% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -7.5 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.346 vs league 0.325 (gap -0.021, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 74°F at first pitch: run environment x1.018. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 11.5 (-109, LowVig.ag) · model 54.4% · edge +2.2 pts · divergence +3.3 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -190 / +160 | -175 / +146 |
| Total | 11.5 | 11 (o-127 / u+108) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 11.5 (-109, LowVig.ag) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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