Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Seattle Mariners ML (-165, BetOnline.ag) · confidence 56.4% of 10,000 sims · edge -5.9 pts · 0u
Logan Gilbert (3.72 ERA, 1.05 WHIP) vs Ryan Johnson (5.12 ERA, 1.36 WHIP).
Projected 4.5–4.3; sim total 8.8 against a 8 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline -170 / +145 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -165 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 52.0% vs de-vigged market 60.7%: 8.6-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 56.4% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -5.9 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.353 vs league 0.325 (gap -0.029, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 73°F at first pitch: run environment x1.014. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 8 (-102, LowVig.ag) · model 52.9% · edge +2.4 pts · divergence +4.0 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -170 / +145 | -135 / +115 |
| Total | 8 | 8.5 (o-103 / u-115) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 8 (-102, LowVig.ag) — WIN (+0.98u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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