Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Tampa Bay Rays ML (-174, FanDuel) · confidence 58.8% of 10,000 sims · edge -4.7 pts · 0u
Brady Basso (3.86 ERA, 1.39 WHIP) vs Nick Martinez (2.92 ERA, 1.07 WHIP).
Projected 4.1–4.9; sim total 9 against a 8 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline +153 / -180 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (6 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -174 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 55.7% vs de-vigged market 61.9%: 6.2-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 58.8% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -4.7 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Brady Basso under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.324 vs league 0.320 (gap -0.004, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +153 / -180 | +152 / -180 |
| Total | 8 | 8 (o-106 / u-115) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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