The slate for Wednesday, September 16, 2026: 15 games, no qualifying plays, 8 on watch
15 games on the slate, 15 simulated 10,000 times each, and nothing cleared the gates — no manufactured pick, no exceptions. 8 on the watch list at 0 units. The full board, with every circuit-breaker check printed, is on the site.
Yesterday on the ledger
No staked plays were graded for Tuesday, September 15, 2026 — the gates published nothing, so nothing rode. Passing is a position too, and it grades itself.
The watch list — tracked, not staked — went 3-8 on paper. That record accumulates toward the promotion criteria; it never touches the staked ledger.
Running ledger: 4-6 · -2.25u · ROI -34.7%, every entry public and append-only.
Today's slate, game by game
| First pitch | Game | Starters (ERA) | Projected score | Sim total / line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1:10 PM ET | Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians | Anthony Kay (4.53) vs Parker Messick (2.51) | 3.9–4.2 | 8.2 / 7 |
| 1:15 PM ET | San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals | Anthony Molina (5.24) vs Matthew Liberatore (5.53) | 4.5–4.6 | 9 / 8 |
| 1:40 PM ET | New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins | Carlos Rodón (2.94) vs Zebby Matthews (4.98) | 4.8–4.1 | 8.9 / 8 |
| 3:07 PM ET | Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays | Keider Montero (3.55) vs Max Scherzer (6.38) | 4.7–4.2 | 8.8 / 8.5 |
| 6:40 PM ET | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds | Blake Snell (1.91) vs Andrew Abbott (4.78) | 5.3–4.2 | 9.5 / 8.5 |
| 6:40 PM ET | Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays | Brady Basso (3.86) vs Nick Martinez (2.92) | 4.1–4.9 | 9 / 8 |
| 6:40 PM ET | Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Logan Henderson (2.34) vs Jared Jones (4.10) | 4.7–4.1 | 8.7 / 7.5 |
| 6:45 PM ET | Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals | Zack Wheeler (3.14) vs Jared Simpson (6.75) | 4.7–4.7 | 9.4 / 9 |
| 7:10 PM ET | Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets | Chris Bassitt (4.88) vs Robert Stock (5.93) | 4.3–4.4 | 8.6 / 9 |
| 7:40 PM ET | Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs | JR Ritchie (4.50) vs Shota Imanaga (3.88) | 4.5–5.1 | 9.5 / 7.5 |
| 8:05 PM ET | Boston Red Sox @ Texas Rangers | Jake Bennett (3.69) vs MacKenzie Gore (4.62) | 4.4–3.9 | 8.3 / 8 |
| 8:10 PM ET | Kansas City Royals @ Houston Astros | Daniel Lynch IV (3.52) vs Cristian Javier (5.50) | 4.3–4.5 | 8.8 / 9 |
| 8:40 PM ET | San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies | Robbie Ray (3.57) vs Mason Adams (3.38) | 5.6–5.6 | 11.3 / 11 |
| 9:38 PM ET | Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels | George Kirby (4.25) vs Yusei Kikuchi (4.75) | 4.3–4.4 | 8.6 / 8 |
| 9:40 PM ET | Miami Marlins @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Ryan Gusto (4.14) vs Merrill Kelly (4.97) | 4.9–4.7 | 9.5 / 9 |
Projections are the engine's 10,000-simulation averages, already blended toward the de-vigged market. ★ marks the free pick. Held plays show no numbers on purpose: a projection plus a total is most of a pick. Every matchup links to its permanent pick page, which completes once the game grades.
🎯 The Daily Pick
No play cleared the strict Qualified gates today, so the always-on strategy carries the slate: Milwaukee Brewers ML (-118, LowVig.ag) — Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 6:40 PM ET. Edge +0.1 pts at the best price, ranking score 0.543. 0 units through the proving window (ends September 8) — it grades onto its own public record, never the Qualified ledger. Full card and analysis on the site.
Three angles a bettor would actually check
- The mound mismatch: Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals. Zack Wheeler (3.14 ERA) against Jared Simpson (6.75) is a 3.6-run ERA gap. The engine stabilizes both with FIP and innings before believing it — a raw ERA gap this wide usually shrinks under the hood, and the market has already priced most of what survives.
- The total: Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs. The sim lands on 9.5 runs against a 7.5 line — 2.0 toward the over. Totals remain in their paper proving period on the watch list: computed, published, graded at 0 units until the record earns promotion.
- The park: San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies. Coors Field carries a 1.24 park factor — solidly hitter-friendly. Known information, so it's in the posted total already; the question is whether this matchup's pitchers move the number off it. Our sim says 11.3 runs.
The watch list: tracked, not staked
market-provingLos Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds — Over 8.5 (+100, Fanatics) · model 59.9% · edge +9.9 ptsmarket-provingMilwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates — Over 7.5 (-110, Bovada) · model 57.8% · edge +5.4 ptsR8-holdPhiladelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals — Philadelphia Phillies ML (-186, BetOnline.ag) · model 38.3% · edge -8.2 ptsmarket-provingBaltimore Orioles @ New York Mets — Under 9 (-113, LowVig.ag) · model 63.4% · edge +10.3 ptsmarket-provingAtlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs — Over 7.5 (-105, Bovada) · model 59.8% · edge +8.6 ptsmarket-provingBoston Red Sox @ Texas Rangers — Under 8 (-109, LowVig.ag) · model 56.9% · edge +4.7 ptsmarket-provingKansas City Royals @ Houston Astros — Under 9 (-113, LowVig.ag) · model 62.1% · edge +9.0 ptsmarket-provingMiami Marlins @ Arizona Diamondbacks — Under 9 (-113, LowVig.ag) · model 55.9% · edge +2.8 pts
Watch picks clear some but not all gates, or belong to a market still proving itself on paper. Each is graded like a real pick at 0 units, on a record that never mixes with the staked ledger. When a segment reaches 100 graded picks with non-negative units and calibration inside 4 points, it gets promoted — publicly, as a version bump. Until then it is exactly this: watched.