Miami Marlins @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Arizona Diamondbacks ML (-129, BetRivers) · confidence 51.7% of 10,000 sims · edge -4.7 pts · 0u
Ryan Gusto (4.14 ERA, 1.40 WHIP) vs Merrill Kelly (4.97 ERA, 1.46 WHIP).
Projected 4.9–4.7; sim total 9.5 against a 9 line; park factor 1.05.
Market at board time: moneyline +115 / -135 (consensus at board time) · total 9.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -129 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 48.1% vs de-vigged market 55.3%: 7.2-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 51.7% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -4.7 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.341 vs league 0.320 (gap -0.020, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 9 (-113, LowVig.ag) · model 55.9% · edge +2.8 pts · divergence +4.6 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +115 / -135 | +115 / -136 |
| Total | 9 | 8.5 (o-118 / u+100) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 9 (-113, LowVig.ag) — WIN (+0.89u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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