Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Milwaukee Brewers ML (-118, LowVig.ag) · confidence 54.2% of 10,000 sims · edge +0.1 pts · 0u
Logan Henderson (2.34 ERA, 0.78 WHIP) vs Jared Jones (4.10 ERA, 1.17 WHIP).
Projected 4.7–4.1; sim total 8.7 against a 7.5 line; park factor 0.97.
Market at board time: moneyline -125 / +107 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (8 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -118 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 55.0% vs de-vigged market 53.5%: 1.5-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 54.3% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is +0.1 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.370 vs league 0.320 (gap -0.050, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 85°F at first pitch: run environment x1.059. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
- 🎯 Daily Pick (v0.15): the slate's top-ranked eligible candidate (score 0.543) under the always-on strategy's lower, precommitted bar. 0u through the proving window (ends 2026-09-08); separate public ledger, never mixed with the Qualified record.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 7.5 (-110, Bovada) · model 57.8% · edge +5.4 pts · divergence +6.7 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -125 / +107 | -125 / +107 |
| Total | 7.5 | 7.5 (o+100 / u-120) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 7.5 (-110, Bovada) — WIN (+0.91u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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