San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
St. Louis Cardinals ML (-156, BetOnline.ag) · confidence 54.8% of 10,000 sims · edge -6.2 pts · 0u
Anthony Molina (5.24 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) vs Matthew Liberatore (5.53 ERA, 1.49 WHIP).
Projected 4.5–4.6; sim total 9 against a 8 line; park factor 0.97.
Market at board time: moneyline +135 / -160 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -156 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 50.4% vs de-vigged market 59.1%: 8.7-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 54.7% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -6.2 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Anthony Molina under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.313 vs league 0.320 (gap +0.007, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 87°F at first pitch: run environment x1.070 + 5% hot-day kicker vs home SP fly-ball (60% air outs). Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +135 / -160 | +135 / -160 |
| Total | 8 | 8 (o-115 / u-105) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
All games this day · Pick archive · The Morning Line for this date