Kansas City Royals @ Houston Astros
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Houston Astros ML (-157, BetOnline.ag) · confidence 55.8% of 10,000 sims · edge -5.3 pts · 0u
Daniel Lynch IV (3.52 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) vs Cristian Javier (5.50 ERA, 1.46 WHIP).
Projected 4.3–4.5; sim total 8.8 against a 9 line; park factor 0.97.
Market at board time: moneyline +138 / -162 (consensus at board time) · total 9.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -157 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 52.0% vs de-vigged market 59.5%: 7.6-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 55.8% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -5.3 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Cristian Javier under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.303 vs league 0.320 (gap +0.017, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 9 (-113, LowVig.ag) · model 62.1% · edge +9.0 pts · divergence +11.0 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +138 / -162 | +140 / -164 |
| Total | 9 | 9 (o-105 / u-115) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 9 (-113, LowVig.ag) — WIN (+0.89u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
All games this day · Pick archive · The Morning Line for this date