San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
San Diego Padres ML (-159, BetRivers) · confidence 55.1% of 10,000 sims · edge -6.2 pts · 0u
Robbie Ray (3.57 ERA, 1.35 WHIP) vs Mason Adams (3.38 ERA, 1.45 WHIP).
Projected 5.6–5.6; sim total 11.3 against a 11 line; park factor 1.24.
Market at board time: moneyline -167 / +142 (consensus at board time) · total 11.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -159 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 50.1% vs de-vigged market 60.2%: 10.1-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 55.1% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -6.2 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Mason Adams under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.347 vs league 0.320 (gap -0.026, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 74°F at first pitch: run environment x1.015. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -167 / +142 | -160 / +140 |
| Total | 11 | 11 (o-106 / u-114) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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