Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
New York Mets ML (-127, LowVig.ag) · confidence 52.6% of 10,000 sims · edge -3.3 pts · 0u
Chris Bassitt (4.88 ERA, 1.59 WHIP) vs Robert Stock (5.93 ERA, 1.75 WHIP).
Projected 4.3–4.4; sim total 8.6 against a 9 line; park factor 0.96.
Market at board time: moneyline +115 / -132 (consensus at board time) · total 9.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -127 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 50.2% vs de-vigged market 55.0%: 4.8-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 52.6% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -3.3 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Robert Stock under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.293 vs league 0.320 (gap +0.027, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 72°F at first pitch: run environment x1.007. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 9 (-113, LowVig.ag) · model 63.4% · edge +10.3 pts · divergence +11.7 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +115 / -132 | -105 / -115 |
| Total | 9 | 9 (o-115 / u-105) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 9 (-113, LowVig.ag) — WIN (+0.89u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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