Boston Red Sox @ Texas Rangers
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Boston Red Sox ML (-106, MyBookie.ag) · confidence 51.9% of 10,000 sims · edge +0.5 pts · 0u
Jake Bennett (3.69 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) vs MacKenzie Gore (4.62 ERA, 1.35 WHIP).
Projected 4.4–3.9; sim total 8.3 against a 8 line; park factor 0.98.
Market at board time: moneyline -108 / -108 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (8 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -106 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 53.9% vs de-vigged market 50.0%: 3.9-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 51.9% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is +0.5 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.303 vs league 0.320 (gap +0.017, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
- ✳ Best of Board: the gates left no held plays today, so this is the model's top remaining lean — 0 units, NOT staked, published for transparency. The checks above show exactly which gate it failed.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 8 (-109, LowVig.ag) · model 56.9% · edge +4.7 pts · divergence +6.7 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -108 / -108 | -110 / -108 |
| Total | 8 | 8 (o-110 / u-110) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 8 (-109, LowVig.ag) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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