Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Chicago Cubs ML (-148, BetRivers) · confidence 56.6% of 10,000 sims · edge -3.1 pts · 0u
JR Ritchie (4.50 ERA, 1.43 WHIP) vs Shota Imanaga (3.88 ERA, 1.12 WHIP).
Projected 4.5–5.1; sim total 9.5 against a 7.5 line; park factor 1.02.
Market at board time: moneyline +135 / -156 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -148 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 54.3% vs de-vigged market 58.9%: 4.6-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 56.6% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -3.1 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: JR Ritchie under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.307 vs league 0.320 (gap +0.013, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 68°F at first pitch: run environment x0.992. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 7.5 (-105, Bovada) · model 59.8% · edge +8.6 pts · divergence +9.8 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +135 / -156 | +138 / -164 |
| Total | 7.5 | 7.5 (o-105 / u-115) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 7.5 (-105, Bovada) — WIN (+0.95u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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