Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 run line · confidence 45.4% of 10,000 sims · edge -5.7 pts · 0u
Blake Snell (1.91 ERA, 1.09 WHIP) vs Andrew Abbott (4.78 ERA, 1.46 WHIP).
Projected 5.3–4.2; sim total 9.5 against a 8.5 line; park factor 1.04.
Market at board time: moneyline -215 / +180 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -208 exceeds the night-game juice cap (-180): pivoted off the moneyline to LAD -1.5 (covers 45.4% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 58.1% vs de-vigged market 65.6%: 7.5-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 45.4% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -5.7 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Blake Snell under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.344 vs league 0.320 (gap -0.024, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 95°F at first pitch: run environment x1.101 + 5% hot-day kicker vs home SP fly-ball (57% air outs). Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 8.5 (+100, Fanatics) · model 59.9% · edge +9.9 pts · divergence +11.0 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -215 / +180 | -215 / +180 |
| Total | 8.5 | 8.5 (o-104 / u-115) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 8.5 (+100, Fanatics) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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