Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Seattle Mariners ML (-127, BetRivers) · confidence 52.3% of 10,000 sims · edge -3.7 pts · 0u
George Kirby (4.25 ERA, 1.36 WHIP) vs Yusei Kikuchi (4.75 ERA, 1.49 WHIP).
Projected 4.3–4.4; sim total 8.6 against a 8 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline -135 / +115 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -127 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 49.3% vs de-vigged market 55.3%: 5.9-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 52.3% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -3.7 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Yusei Kikuchi under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.336 vs league 0.320 (gap -0.016, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 73°F at first pitch: run environment x1.012. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -135 / +115 | -139 / +119 |
| Total | 8 | 8 (o-114 / u-110) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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