Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 run line · confidence 48.4% of 10,000 sims · edge -6.8 pts · 0u
Jeffrey Springs (5.93 ERA, 1.45 WHIP) vs Drew Rasmussen (2.81 ERA, 0.92 WHIP).
Projected 4–5.4; sim total 9.3 against a 7.5 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline +225 / -275 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (6 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -260 exceeds the day-game juice cap (-170): pivoted off the moneyline to TB -1.5 (covers 48.4% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 60.4% vs de-vigged market 70.4%: 10.0-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 48.4% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -6.8 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.301 vs league 0.320 (gap +0.019, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 7.5 (-114, Caesars) · model 58.3% · edge +5.1 pts · divergence +7.2 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +225 / -275 | +224 / -275 |
| Total | 7.5 | 7.5 (o-115 / u-105) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 7.5 (-114, Caesars) — WIN (+0.88u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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