The slate for Thursday, September 17, 2026: 9 games, no qualifying plays, 3 on watch
9 games on the slate, 8 simulated 10,000 times each, and nothing cleared the gates — no manufactured pick, no exceptions. 1 scratched by rule. 3 on the watch list at 0 units. The full board, with every circuit-breaker check printed, is on the site.
Yesterday on the ledger
No staked plays were graded for Wednesday, September 16, 2026 — the gates published nothing, so nothing rode. Passing is a position too, and it grades itself.
The watch list — tracked, not staked — went 6-2 on paper. That record accumulates toward the promotion criteria; it never touches the staked ledger.
Running ledger: 4-6 · -2.25u · ROI -34.7%, every entry public and append-only.
Today's slate, game by game
| First pitch | Game | Starters (ERA) | Projected score | Sim total / line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:35 PM ET | Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Kyle Harrison (3.98) vs Wilber Dotel (4.84) | 4.7–4.4 | 9.1 / 8.5 |
| 12:40 PM ET | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds | Justin Wrobleski (3.78) vs Brady Singer (5.38) | 5.4–4.4 | 9.8 / 9.5 |
| 1:10 PM ET | Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays | Jeffrey Springs (5.93) vs Drew Rasmussen (2.81) | 4–5.4 | 9.3 / 7.5 |
| 3:10 PM ET | San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies | Michael King (3.03) vs Tanner Gordon (5.55) | 5.8–5.4 | 11.2 / 10.5 |
| 7:15 PM ET | Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets | Aaron Nola (4.69) vs Nolan McLean (3.24) | 4–4.5 | 8.5 / 8 |
| 7:40 PM ET | Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox | Framber Valdez (4.01) vs Erick Fedde (3.97) | 4.6–4.7 | 9.3 / 8.5 |
| 8:05 PM ET | Boston Red Sox @ Texas Rangers | Sonny Gray (2.76) vs Tyler Alexander (3.38) | 4.2–3.8 | 8 / 7.5 |
| 9:38 PM ET | Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels | Taj Bradley (3.81) vs Walbert Ureña (2.88) | 3.9–4.4 | 8.3 / 7.5 |
| 7:15 PM ET | Kansas City Royals @ Houston Astros | Scratched — Rule 7: Late-Line Circuit Breaker: Starter TBD for HOU inside the pre-game window. Automatic scratch, no position. | ||
Projections are the engine's 10,000-simulation averages, already blended toward the de-vigged market. ★ marks the free pick. Held plays show no numbers on purpose: a projection plus a total is most of a pick. Every matchup links to its permanent pick page, which completes once the game grades.
🎯 The Daily Pick
No play cleared the strict Qualified gates today, so the always-on strategy carries the slate: Los Angeles Angels ML (-102, Caesars) — Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels, 9:38 PM ET. Edge +1.0 pts at the best price, ranking score 0.605. 0 units through the proving window (ends September 8) — it grades onto its own public record, never the Qualified ledger. Full card and analysis on the site.
Three angles a bettor would actually check
- The mound mismatch: Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays. Drew Rasmussen (2.81 ERA) against Jeffrey Springs (5.93) is a 3.1-run ERA gap. The engine stabilizes both with FIP and innings before believing it — a raw ERA gap this wide usually shrinks under the hood, and the market has already priced most of what survives.
- The total: Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays. The sim lands on 9.3 runs against a 7.5 line — 1.8 toward the over. Totals remain in their paper proving period on the watch list: computed, published, graded at 0 units until the record earns promotion.
- The park: San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies. Coors Field carries a 1.24 park factor — solidly hitter-friendly. Known information, so it's in the posted total already; the question is whether this matchup's pitchers move the number off it. Our sim says 11.2 runs.
The watch list: tracked, not staked
market-provingAthletics @ Tampa Bay Rays — Over 7.5 (-114, Caesars) · model 58.3% · edge +5.1 ptsmarket-provingPhiladelphia Phillies @ New York Mets — Under 8 (-101, LowVig.ag) · model 54.8% · edge +4.5 ptsmarket-provingBoston Red Sox @ Texas Rangers — Under 7.5 (-101, MyBookie.ag) · model 53.5% · edge +3.3 pts
Watch picks clear some but not all gates, or belong to a market still proving itself on paper. Each is graded like a real pick at 0 units, on a record that never mixes with the staked ledger. When a segment reaches 100 graded picks with non-negative units and calibration inside 4 points, it gets promoted — publicly, as a version bump. Until then it is exactly this: watched.