Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Milwaukee Brewers ML (-129, BetRivers) · confidence 54.0% of 10,000 sims · edge -2.3 pts · 0u
Kyle Harrison (3.98 ERA, 1.31 WHIP) vs Wilber Dotel (4.84 ERA, 1.36 WHIP).
Projected 4.7–4.4; sim total 9.1 against a 8.5 line; park factor 0.97.
Market at board time: moneyline -137 / +117 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -129 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 52.5% vs de-vigged market 55.6%: 3.2-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 54.1% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -2.3 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Wilber Dotel under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.359 vs league 0.320 (gap -0.039, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 79°F at first pitch: run environment x1.037. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -137 / +117 | -136 / +115 |
| Total | 8.5 | 8.5 (o-120 / u+100) |
Capture caveat, verbatim: first capture was after first pitch — weak close.
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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