Boston Red Sox @ Texas Rangers
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Boston Red Sox ML (-120, BetOnline.ag) · confidence 53.9% of 10,000 sims · edge -0.6 pts · 0u
Sonny Gray (2.76 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) vs Tyler Alexander (3.38 ERA, 1.28 WHIP).
Projected 4.2–3.8; sim total 8 against a 7.5 line; park factor 0.98.
Market at board time: moneyline -125 / +109 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -120 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 54.2% vs de-vigged market 53.7%: 0.4-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 53.9% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -0.6 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.289 vs league 0.320 (gap +0.032, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 7.5 (-101, MyBookie.ag) · model 53.5% · edge +3.3 pts · divergence +4.9 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -125 / +109 | -124 / +107 |
| Total | 7.5 | 7.5 (o-115 / u-105) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 7.5 (-101, MyBookie.ag) — WIN (+0.99u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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