San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
San Diego Padres -1.5 run line · confidence 43.0% of 10,000 sims · edge -6.8 pts · 0u
Michael King (3.03 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) vs Tanner Gordon (5.55 ERA, 1.48 WHIP).
Projected 5.8–5.4; sim total 11.2 against a 10.5 line; park factor 1.24.
Market at board time: moneyline -190 / +165 (consensus at board time) · total 10.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -186 exceeds the day-game juice cap (-170): pivoted off the moneyline to SD -1.5 (covers 43.0% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 53.1% vs de-vigged market 63.5%: 10.4-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 43.0% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -6.8 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.357 vs league 0.320 (gap -0.037, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 84°F at first pitch: run environment x1.058. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -190 / +165 | -200 / +168 |
| Total | 10.5 | 10.5 (o-115 / u-105) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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