Athletics @ Cleveland Guardians
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Cleveland Guardians -1.5 run line · confidence 46.2% of 10,000 sims · edge -4.7 pts · 0u
Mason Barnett (7.08 ERA, 1.62 WHIP) vs Daniel Espino (2.92 ERA, 1.22 WHIP).
Projected 3.8–4.9; sim total 8.7 against a 8.5 line; park factor 0.97.
Market at board time: moneyline +190 / -225 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -216 exceeds the night-game juice cap (-180): pivoted off the moneyline to CLE -1.5 (covers 46.2% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 60.6% vs de-vigged market 66.8%: 6.2-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 46.2% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -4.7 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Mason Barnett, Daniel Espino under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 flag: away 14-day wOBA 0.281 trails league 0.321 by 0.039 (threshold 0.035). 8% run tax applied to the away run rate.
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 69°F at first pitch: run environment x0.998. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 8.5 (-107, LowVig.ag) · model 55.1% · edge +3.4 pts · divergence +5.0 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +190 / -225 | +151 / -179 |
| Total | 8.5 | 8.5 (o-105 / u-114) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 8.5 (-107, LowVig.ag) — WIN (+0.94u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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