The slate for Friday, September 18, 2026: 15 games, no qualifying plays, 7 on watch
15 games on the slate, 13 simulated 10,000 times each, and nothing cleared the gates — no manufactured pick, no exceptions. 2 scratched by rule. 7 on the watch list at 0 units. The full board, with every circuit-breaker check printed, is on the site.
Yesterday on the ledger
No staked plays were graded for Thursday, September 17, 2026 — the gates published nothing, so nothing rode. Passing is a position too, and it grades itself.
The watch list — tracked, not staked — went 3-0 on paper. That record accumulates toward the promotion criteria; it never touches the staked ledger.
Running ledger: 4-6 · -2.25u · ROI -34.7%, every entry public and append-only.
Today's slate, game by game
| First pitch | Game | Starters (ERA) | Projected score | Sim total / line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6:40 PM ET | Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds | Clay Holmes (2.85) vs Chase Burns (2.80) | 4.9–4.3 | 9.2 / 8.5 |
| 6:40 PM ET | Kansas City Royals @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Randy Dobnak (2.73) vs Paul Skenes (3.78) | 3.7–4.7 | 8.3 / 8.5 |
| 7:10 PM ET | Athletics @ Cleveland Guardians | Mason Barnett (7.08) vs Daniel Espino (2.92) | 3.8–4.9 | 8.7 / 8.5 |
| 7:10 PM ET | Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Ranger Suarez (3.33) vs Ian Seymour (4.27) | 4–4.1 | 8.1 / 7 |
| 7:15 PM ET | Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets | Andrew Painter (5.54) vs Zac Thornton (3.44) | 4.1–4.5 | 8.6 / 8.5 |
| 7:40 PM ET | Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox | Andrew Sears (5.40) vs David Sandlin (5.64) | 4.6–4.8 | 9.4 / 8.5 |
| 8:05 PM ET | Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers | Dylan Cease (2.38) vs Kumar Rocker (4.54) | 4.3–3.7 | 8 / 7.5 |
| 8:10 PM ET | Atlanta Braves @ Houston Astros | Tyler Mahle (3.91) vs Peter Lambert (3.71) | 4.2–4.2 | 8.4 / 8.5 |
| 8:15 PM ET | Washington Nationals @ St. Louis Cardinals | Cade Cavalli (3.12) vs Kyle Leahy (3.33) | 4.5–4.4 | 9 / 7.5 |
| 9:38 PM ET | Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels | Connor Prielipp (5.24) vs Grayson Rodriguez (6.10) | 4.4–4.4 | 8.9 / 8 |
| 9:40 PM ET | Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres | Tyler Phillips (3.55) vs Nick Pivetta (3.60) | 4–4.2 | 8.2 / 7.5 |
| 9:40 PM ET | New York Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Gerrit Cole (3.67) vs Eduardo Rodriguez (2.62) | 4.4–4.4 | 8.8 / 8 |
| 10:15 PM ET | San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Cesar Perdomo (3.68) vs Tyler Glasnow (3.50) | 4.1–4.8 | 9 / 8 |
| 7:05 PM ET | Milwaukee Brewers @ Baltimore Orioles | Scratched — Rule 7: Late-Line Circuit Breaker: Starter TBD for BAL inside the pre-game window. Automatic scratch, no position. | ||
| 8:10 PM ET | Seattle Mariners @ Colorado Rockies | Scratched — Rule 7: Late-Line Circuit Breaker: Starter TBD for COL inside the pre-game window. Automatic scratch, no position. | ||
Projections are the engine's 10,000-simulation averages, already blended toward the de-vigged market. ★ marks the free pick. Held plays show no numbers on purpose: a projection plus a total is most of a pick. Every matchup links to its permanent pick page, which completes once the game grades.
🎯 The Daily Pick
No play cleared the strict Qualified gates today, so the always-on strategy carries the slate: New York Mets ML (-108, BetUS) — Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets, 7:15 PM ET. Edge +0.2 pts at the best price, ranking score 0.517. 0 units through the proving window (ends September 8) — it grades onto its own public record, never the Qualified ledger. Full card and analysis on the site.
Three angles a bettor would actually check
- The argument: Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels. Raw model and de-vigged market disagree by 46.5 points here. Our standing rule: past 12 points the market is assumed to know something we don't, and the game is a hold, not a bigger bet. Under it, a disagreement is just that — logged on the card, sized by the gates.
- The mound mismatch: Athletics @ Cleveland Guardians. Daniel Espino (2.92 ERA) against Mason Barnett (7.08) is a 4.2-run ERA gap. The engine stabilizes both with FIP and innings before believing it — a raw ERA gap this wide usually shrinks under the hood, and the market has already priced most of what survives.
- The total: Washington Nationals @ St. Louis Cardinals. The sim lands on 9 runs against a 7.5 line — 1.5 toward the over. Totals remain in their paper proving period on the watch list: computed, published, graded at 0 units until the record earns promotion.
The watch list: tracked, not staked
market-provingKansas City Royals @ Pittsburgh Pirates — Under 8.5 (-105, Bovada) · model 55.4% · edge +4.1 ptsmarket-provingAthletics @ Cleveland Guardians — Under 8.5 (-107, LowVig.ag) · model 55.1% · edge +3.4 ptsmarket-provingAtlanta Braves @ Houston Astros — Under 8.5 (-117, BetRivers) · model 56.4% · edge +2.5 ptsmarket-provingWashington Nationals @ St. Louis Cardinals — Over 7.5 (-113, LowVig.ag) · model 60.6% · edge +7.5 ptsR8-holdMinnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels — Minnesota Twins ML (-110, BetOnline.ag) · model 73.2% · edge +20.8 ptsR8-holdMiami Marlins @ San Diego Padres — San Diego Padres ML (-200, FanDuel) · model 38.7% · edge -8.4 ptsR8-holdSan Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers — Los Angeles Dodgers ML (-290, LowVig.ag) · model 42.8% · edge -10.3 pts
Watch picks clear some but not all gates, or belong to a market still proving itself on paper. Each is graded like a real pick at 0 units, on a record that never mixes with the staked ledger. When a segment reaches 100 graded picks with non-negative units and calibration inside 4 points, it gets promoted — publicly, as a version bump. Until then it is exactly this: watched.