Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Toronto Blue Jays ML (-132, BetUS) · confidence 55.3% of 10,000 sims · edge -1.6 pts · 0u
Dylan Cease (2.38 ERA, 1.06 WHIP) vs Kumar Rocker (4.54 ERA, 1.43 WHIP).
Projected 4.3–3.7; sim total 8 against a 7.5 line; park factor 0.98.
Market at board time: moneyline -136 / +115 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -132 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 55.2% vs de-vigged market 55.3%: 0.1-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 55.3% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -1.6 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.342 vs league 0.321 (gap -0.021, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -136 / +115 | -115 / -103 |
| Total | 7.5 | 7.75 (o-117 / u-1) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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