Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Minnesota Twins ML (-110, BetOnline.ag) · confidence 73.2% of 10,000 sims · edge +20.8 pts · 0u
Connor Prielipp (5.24 ERA, 1.34 WHIP) vs Grayson Rodriguez (6.10 ERA, 1.56 WHIP).
Projected 4.4–4.4; sim total 8.9 against a 8 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline -114 / -2 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (6 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -110 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 fired: raw model sees 50.0%, de-vigged market says 96.4%: a 46.5-point divergence (cap 12). When the model and the market disagree this hard, the market usually knows something our inputs do not (lineups, injury news, form). Demoted to lean pending manual review.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 flag: away 14-day wOBA 0.277 trails league 0.321 by 0.043 (threshold 0.035). 8% run tax applied to the away run rate.
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 75°F at first pitch: run environment x1.018. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (R8-hold, 0u): Minnesota Twins ML (-110, BetOnline.ag) · model 73.2% · edge +20.8 pts · divergence -46.5 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -114 / -2 | -108 / -109 |
| Total | 8 | 7.5 (o+105 / u-125) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (R8-hold, paper, 0u staked): Minnesota Twins ML (-110, BetOnline.ag) — WIN (+0.91u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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