Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Chicago Cubs ML (-125, BetRivers) · confidence 54.7% of 10,000 sims · edge -0.8 pts · 0u
Clay Holmes (2.85 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) vs Chase Burns (2.80 ERA, 1.15 WHIP).
Projected 4.9–4.3; sim total 9.2 against a 8.5 line; park factor 1.04.
Market at board time: moneyline -127 / +111 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -125 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 55.3% vs de-vigged market 54.1%: 1.2-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 54.7% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -0.8 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.346 vs league 0.321 (gap -0.025, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 84°F at first pitch: run environment x1.054. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -127 / +111 | -139 / +119 |
| Total | 8.5 | 8.5 (o-115 / u-105) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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