Kansas City Royals @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 run line · confidence 44.5% of 10,000 sims · edge -3.5 pts · 0u
Randy Dobnak (2.73 ERA, 1.27 WHIP) vs Paul Skenes (3.78 ERA, 1.13 WHIP).
Projected 3.7–4.7; sim total 8.3 against a 8.5 line; park factor 0.97.
Market at board time: moneyline +160 / -190 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -182 exceeds the night-game juice cap (-180): pivoted off the moneyline to PIT -1.5 (covers 44.5% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 59.1% vs de-vigged market 63.0%: 3.9-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 44.5% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -3.5 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 flag: away 14-day wOBA 0.280 trails league 0.321 by 0.041 (threshold 0.035). 8% run tax applied to the away run rate.
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 75°F at first pitch: run environment x1.020. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 8.5 (-105, Bovada) · model 55.4% · edge +4.1 pts · divergence +5.3 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +160 / -190 | +160 / -190 |
| Total | 8.5 | 8.5 (o-110 / u-110) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 8.5 (-105, Bovada) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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