Atlanta Braves @ Houston Astros
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Atlanta Braves ML (-116, FanDuel) · confidence 51.5% of 10,000 sims · edge -2.2 pts · 0u
Tyler Mahle (3.91 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) vs Peter Lambert (3.71 ERA, 1.22 WHIP).
Projected 4.2–4.2; sim total 8.4 against a 8.5 line; park factor 0.97.
Market at board time: moneyline -119 / +100 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -116 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 50.9% vs de-vigged market 52.1%: 1.1-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 51.5% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -2.2 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.296 vs league 0.321 (gap +0.024, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 8.5 (-117, BetRivers) · model 56.4% · edge +2.5 pts · divergence +4.2 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -119 / +100 | +101 / -117 |
| Total | 8.5 | 8.5 (o-106 / u-113) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 8.5 (-117, BetRivers) — WIN (+0.85u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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