Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Tampa Bay Rays ML (-131, BetOnline.ag) · confidence 52.8% of 10,000 sims · edge -3.9 pts · 0u
Ranger Suarez (3.33 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) vs Ian Seymour (4.27 ERA, 1.14 WHIP).
Projected 4–4.1; sim total 8.1 against a 7 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline +116 / -135 (consensus at board time) · total 7.
Circuit-breaker log (6 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -131 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 50.3% vs de-vigged market 55.4%: 5.1-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 52.8% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -3.9 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 flag: away 14-day wOBA 0.279 trails league 0.321 by 0.041 (threshold 0.035). 8% run tax applied to the away run rate.
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +116 / -135 | +115 / -137 |
| Total | 7 | 7 (o-108 / u-111) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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