Atlanta Braves @ Houston Astros
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Houston Astros ML (-129, Caesars) · confidence 51.9% of 10,000 sims · edge -4.5 pts · 0u
Grant Holmes (3.49 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) vs Hayden Wesneski (3.70 ERA, 1.13 WHIP).
Projected 4.3–4.3; sim total 8.6 against a 8.5 line; park factor 0.97.
Market at board time: moneyline +111 / -131 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -129 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 49.2% vs de-vigged market 54.5%: 5.2-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 51.9% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -4.5 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Hayden Wesneski under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.303 vs league 0.322 (gap +0.019, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 8.5 (+100, FanDuel) · model 55.5% · edge +5.5 pts · divergence +7.7 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +111 / -131 | +116 / -136 |
| Total | 8.5 | 8 (o-115 / u-105) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 8.5 (+100, FanDuel) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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