The slate for Saturday, September 19, 2026: 15 games, no qualifying plays, 11 on watch
15 games on the slate, 13 simulated 10,000 times each, and nothing cleared the gates — no manufactured pick, no exceptions. 2 scratched by rule. 11 on the watch list at 0 units. The full board, with every circuit-breaker check printed, is on the site.
Yesterday on the ledger
No staked plays were graded for Friday, September 18, 2026 — the gates published nothing, so nothing rode. Passing is a position too, and it grades itself.
The watch list — tracked, not staked — went 6-1 on paper. That record accumulates toward the promotion criteria; it never touches the staked ledger.
Running ledger: 4-6 · -2.25u · ROI -34.7%, every entry public and append-only.
Today's slate, game by game
| First pitch | Game | Starters (ERA) | Projected score | Sim total / line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2:10 PM ET | Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox | Jackson Jobe (3.89) vs Sean Burke (3.47) | 4.3–4.8 | 9.1 / 8 |
| 4:05 PM ET | Milwaukee Brewers @ Baltimore Orioles | Robert Gasser (4.30) vs Trevor Rogers (4.22) | 4.7–4.5 | 9.2 / 7.5 |
| 4:10 PM ET | Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets | Andrew Painter (5.54) vs Christian Scott (3.76) | 4–4.5 | 8.5 / 8 |
| 6:10 PM ET | Athletics @ Cleveland Guardians | Jacob Lopez (5.02) vs Tanner Bibee (4.16) | 3.8–4.7 | 8.5 / 7.5 |
| 6:40 PM ET | Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds | Matthew Boyd (4.16) vs Nick Lodolo (5.12) | 5.7–4.5 | 10.2 / 9 |
| 6:40 PM ET | Kansas City Royals @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Noah Cameron (3.84) vs Bubba Chandler (4.28) | 3.8–4.7 | 8.5 / 8 |
| 7:05 PM ET | Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers | José Soriano (3.56) vs Cal Quantrill (2.90) | 4–4 | 8.1 / 7.5 |
| 7:10 PM ET | Atlanta Braves @ Houston Astros | Grant Holmes (3.49) vs Hayden Wesneski (3.70) | 4.3–4.3 | 8.6 / 8.5 |
| 7:15 PM ET | Washington Nationals @ St. Louis Cardinals | Andrew Alvarez (3.35) vs Michael McGreevy (3.83) | 4.6–4.5 | 9.1 / 8.5 |
| 8:10 PM ET | Seattle Mariners @ Colorado Rockies | Bryce Miller (4.19) vs Jose Quintana (5.27) | 5.6–5.9 | 11.6 / 11 |
| 8:10 PM ET | New York Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Cam Schlittler (1.95) vs Brandon Pfaadt (3.77) | 4.7–3.9 | 8.5 / 7.5 |
| 8:40 PM ET | Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres | Eury Pérez (3.99) vs Casey Mize (3.69) | 4–4.3 | 8.2 / 7.5 |
| 9:38 PM ET | Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels | Joe Ryan (3.84) vs Reid Detmers (3.36) | 3.9–4.4 | 8.3 / 7.5 |
| 4:10 PM ET | Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Scratched — Rule 7: Late-Line Circuit Breaker: Starter TBD for BOS inside the pre-game window. Automatic scratch, no position. | ||
| 9:10 PM ET | San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Scratched — Rule 7: Late-Line Circuit Breaker: Starter TBD for SF inside the pre-game window. Automatic scratch, no position. | ||
Projections are the engine's 10,000-simulation averages, already blended toward the de-vigged market. ★ marks the free pick. Held plays show no numbers on purpose: a projection plus a total is most of a pick. Every matchup links to its permanent pick page, which completes once the game grades.
🎯 The Daily Pick
No play cleared the strict Qualified gates today, so the always-on strategy carries the slate: Pittsburgh Pirates ML (-112, FanDuel) — Kansas City Royals @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 6:40 PM ET. Edge +1.7 pts at the best price, ranking score 0.643. 0 units through the proving window (ends September 8) — it grades onto its own public record, never the Qualified ledger. Full card and analysis on the site.
Three angles a bettor would actually check
- The argument: Washington Nationals @ St. Louis Cardinals. Raw model and de-vigged market disagree by 49.6 points here. Our standing rule: past 12 points the market is assumed to know something we don't, and the game is a hold, not a bigger bet. Under it, a disagreement is just that — logged on the card, sized by the gates.
- The total: Milwaukee Brewers @ Baltimore Orioles. The sim lands on 9.2 runs against a 7.5 line — 1.7 toward the over. Totals remain in their paper proving period on the watch list: computed, published, graded at 0 units until the record earns promotion.
- The park: Seattle Mariners @ Colorado Rockies. Coors Field carries a 1.24 park factor — solidly hitter-friendly. Known information, so it's in the posted total already; the question is whether this matchup's pitchers move the number off it. Our sim says 11.6 runs.
The watch list: tracked, not staked
market-provingMilwaukee Brewers @ Baltimore Orioles — Over 7.5 (-110, Fanatics) · model 57.2% · edge +4.8 ptsmarket-provingPhiladelphia Phillies @ New York Mets — Under 8 (-107, LowVig.ag) · model 55.6% · edge +3.9 ptsedge-bandKansas City Royals @ Pittsburgh Pirates — Pittsburgh Pirates ML (-112, FanDuel) · model 54.5% · edge +1.7 ptsmarket-provingToronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers — Under 7.5 (+103, Caesars) · model 52.0% · edge +2.8 ptsmarket-provingAtlanta Braves @ Houston Astros — Under 8.5 (+100, FanDuel) · model 55.5% · edge +5.5 ptsmarket-provingWashington Nationals @ St. Louis Cardinals — Over 8.5 (-113, LowVig.ag) · model 56.9% · edge +3.8 ptsR8-holdWashington Nationals @ St. Louis Cardinals — St. Louis Cardinals ML (-111, LowVig.ag) · model 73.4% · edge +20.8 ptsmarket-provingSeattle Mariners @ Colorado Rockies — Under 11 (-118, LowVig.ag) · model 57.4% · edge +3.2 ptsmarket-provingNew York Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks — Over 7.5 (+107, LowVig.ag) · model 51.8% · edge +3.5 ptsmarket-provingMinnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels — Over 7.5 (+107, LowVig.ag) · model 51.3% · edge +2.9 ptsedge-bandMinnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels — Los Angeles Angels ML (-106, BetRivers) · model 52.5% · edge +1.1 pts
Watch picks clear some but not all gates, or belong to a market still proving itself on paper. Each is graded like a real pick at 0 units, on a record that never mixes with the staked ledger. When a segment reaches 100 graded picks with non-negative units and calibration inside 4 points, it gets promoted — publicly, as a version bump. Until then it is exactly this: watched.