Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Los Angeles Angels ML (-106, BetRivers) · confidence 52.5% of 10,000 sims · edge +1.1 pts · 0u
Joe Ryan (3.84 ERA, 1.16 WHIP) vs Reid Detmers (3.36 ERA, 1.05 WHIP).
Projected 3.9–4.4; sim total 8.3 against a 7.5 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline -108 / -108 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -106 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 55.1% vs de-vigged market 50.0%: 5.1-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 52.5% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is +1.1 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 flag: away 14-day wOBA 0.276 trails league 0.322 by 0.045 (threshold 0.035). 8% run tax applied to the away run rate.
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 75°F at first pitch: run environment x1.020. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 7.5 (+107, LowVig.ag) · model 51.3% · edge +2.9 pts · divergence +4.5 pts
👁 Watch (edge-band, 0u): Los Angeles Angels ML (-106, BetRivers) · model 52.5% · edge +1.1 pts · divergence +5.1 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -108 / -108 | -121 / +104 |
| Total | 7.5 | 8.5 (o-110 / u-108) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 7.5 (+107, LowVig.ag) — WIN (+1.07u paper).
✅ Watch pick (edge-band, paper, 0u staked): Los Angeles Angels ML (-106, BetRivers) — WIN (+0.94u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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