Seattle Mariners @ Colorado Rockies
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Seattle Mariners ML (-143, LowVig.ag) · confidence 53.1% of 10,000 sims · edge -5.7 pts · 0u
Bryce Miller (4.19 ERA, 1.16 WHIP) vs Jose Quintana (5.27 ERA, 1.51 WHIP).
Projected 5.6–5.9; sim total 11.6 against a 11 line; park factor 1.24.
Market at board time: moneyline -153 / +129 (consensus at board time) · total 11.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -143 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 48.2% vs de-vigged market 58.1%: 9.8-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 53.2% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -5.7 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Jose Quintana under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.335 vs league 0.322 (gap -0.013, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 65°F at first pitch: run environment x0.980. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 11 (-118, LowVig.ag) · model 57.4% · edge +3.2 pts · divergence +5.2 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -153 / +129 | -149 / +126 |
| Total | 11 | 10.5 (o-120 / u+100) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 11 (-118, LowVig.ag) — WIN (+0.85u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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