Milwaukee Brewers @ Baltimore Orioles
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Milwaukee Brewers ML (-108, BetOnline.ag) · confidence 51.9% of 10,000 sims · edge +0.0 pts · 0u
Robert Gasser (4.30 ERA, 1.27 WHIP) vs Trevor Rogers (4.22 ERA, 1.22 WHIP).
Projected 4.7–4.5; sim total 9.2 against a 7.5 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline -115 / -102 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (6 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -108 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 52.4% vs de-vigged market 51.4%: 1.0-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 51.9% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is +0.0 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.362 vs league 0.322 (gap -0.040, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 7.5 (-110, Fanatics) · model 57.2% · edge +4.8 pts · divergence +5.7 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -115 / -102 | -114 / -105 |
| Total | 7.5 | 7.5 (o-113 / u-110) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 7.5 (-110, Fanatics) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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